Andy Canham came back quickly with this argument on behalf of the Andreivian Turks:
ACTION: Today, acting with support from the command and control of the Dvimim Naval Military Academy, the Black Sea Fleet Marines have secured the port facilities at Mdinar, enabling support for the peoples of Andreivia against the aggression of the Ottoman forces and their NATO allies. However, in an unfortunate series of events in the crowded shipping offshore, the fleet flagship helicopter carrier and amphibious landing ship "Admiral Kuznetzov" was rammed by the now obsolete battleship "Potemkin". The latter immediately broke in two and sank with the almost total loss of all personnel below decks, while the Ad Kuznetsov has been left badly holed and tilted at a nearly fatal 35 degree angle. From this position, the ship is unable to launch amphibious craft or fly off helicopters.
RESULT: Although this move has ensured effective command and control for amphibious infantry landings and also naval artillery from the destroyers deployed as a peacekeeping force to the area, the loss of the Potemkin has massively reduced ship to shore firepower, while the effective loss of the Ad Kuznetsov has severely limited the ability of the Russians to land troops in the foreseeable future, both from amphibious and heliborne methods. The world-wide syndication of images of the crippled Ad Kuznetsov and the ghostly outline of the remains of the Potemkin in the shallow waters off the mouth of the Krupnehr River are causing consternation in the highest echelons of the Russian hierarchy, with Boris Yeltsin allegedly falling from his chair, spilling his vodka, when he received the news from an aide. In NATO circles, there is immense satisfaction that the bear has got his feet wet, particularly in the higher echelons of the RN and USN.
REASON 1: The Black Sea Fleet is a cadre with high corps morale, and the Andreivan facilities and staff have been indoctrinated in naval fraternity since the days of Imperial Russia, through the days of the Great Patriotic War and in decades of stand offs with the Turks and their NATO allies, although, through years of Soviet miss-management and a focus on the Red Army, maintenance of the naval fleet has been sorely neglected, particularly with poor quality steel components. A PRAVDA spokesman has blamed the total failure of the steering mechanism on the Potemkin, while manoeuvring at high speed, for the collision, although there are dark rumours of sabotage by Crimean nationalists in support of their Andreivian brothers.
REASON 2: The waters in the eastern part of the Black Sea are non-tidal, but the strong currents near the mouth of the Krupnehr cause rapidly shifting sand banks, which the Potemkin was almost certainly trying to negotiate at the time of the collision, a situation which would have been aggravated by the limited visibility arising from coastal fog which is prevalent at the time of the incident.
REASON 3: It will take several weeks for the Russian Navy to replace the Ad Kuznetsov from Murmansk, which will severely limit the mobility of the Russian forces in taking up key positions in Andreiva, with the result that most troop mobility will be by foot.
I agreed with Andy a (possibly generous) "Average" strength for this Argument. It would therefore succeed on a 4+, I rolled the die and got a ... 5 so the collision does indeed take place.