ACTION: Today, acting with support from the command and control of the Dvimim Naval Military Academy, the Black Sea Fleet Marines have secured the port facilities at Mdinar, enabling support for the peoples of Andreivia against the aggression of the Ottoman forces and their NATO allies.RESULT: This will ensure effective command and control for amphibious infantry landings and also naval artillery from the destroyers deployed as a peacekeeping force to the area.REASON 1: The Black Sea Fleet is a cadre with high corps morale, and the Andreivan facilities and staff have been indoctrinated in naval fraternity since the days of Imperial Russia, through the days of the Great Patriotic War and in decades of stand offs with the Turks and their NATO allies.REASON 2: President Yeltsin made a coherent and passioned speech on TV last night denouncing the rise of a new Ottoman aggression in the area, and pledging Russian peacekeepers to prevent the rise of ethnic cleansing. Flanked by Russian and Armenian Orthodox priests and a Central Asian mullah, Yeltsin pledged a new freedom of conscience in the Confederation of Independent States.REASON 3: Naval personnel in key positions in Andreiva have historically enjoyed a programme of officer exchange visits with the Soviet Union's Black Sea Fleet, and as such share the concern of all Russians at the outbreak of sectarian strife.
This is a nicely-structured Argument but it does involve a military operation and these must always be risky. I’d start, I think, at Strong (succeeds on a 3+) for a military operation that’s not overly ambitious. I should then come down from there to Average (4+) as the involvement of Andreivian Naval Officers in the operation has not been established in a previous Argument. However, this Argument would get us more Russian boots on the ground and so more for our Russian players to do when we get the toys out so I’m going to use Referee’s executive fiat to leave it at 3+.
The die is still here from last night so let’s roll now… It’s a 3 and the argument succeeds!